A Breadth of Knowledge

Ford CEO says he’ll drive to Washington DC. This is probably in response to that whole private jet thing. If they really want to impress me, one of them should walk… or take a Segway. That would be hilarious. Oh, or one of those huge old-timey bikes. Yeah…

I made one. Pretty self explanatory. Type in the known values for the sudoku and click the solve button and it will solve it for you. It is a java program pacakged as a jar so it will run on any machine with a JVM.

You can download it here.

I have some life decisions to work through. Be back soon.

Steven Levitt (author of Freakonomics) predicts the future.

FAIR reports on the perceived media bias.

A really beautiful display of November 5th newspaper covers.

Paul Krugman shows a graph on the shift this election. The country as a whole went very blue with a few exceptions. Is this the beginning of a realignment?

A cartoon on California, chickens, and gays.

What would happen if atheists were the majority?

This woman is kind of a jerk…

Campbell Brown cuts through the BS on the Palin bashing.

The reason Lieberman wants that chairmanship, and why we sure as hell shouldn’t give it to him.

Although Myers is commenting about something else in this video, I find it amusing that anyone who knows election polling 101 knows Buchanan’s analysis of the Palin pick is crap.

Liddy Dole lost her seat. That means there is no god.

Woah, turns out the Georgia thing was a little more complicated than McCain made it out to be. What was his strength again? Foreign policy? I think he would have botched the crap out of this one. Good thing we already had troops tied up in other useless wars.

Fivethirtyeight explains why Indiana flipped.

It’s really hard to justify bailing out GM when they have management like this.

I though maybe John McCain’s honor would return after the election. It didn’t.

If the bailout is socialism, then the founding fathers were socialists.

And a shout-out to the Jews. Good job on Prop 8! Also, Arnold is being pretty cool about it too.

Sarah Palin insults bloggers. Well Sarah, I’ll have you know I went to one school for my degree. I’m paying for it myself. I am blogging fully clothed out of my apartment’s living room. And, well I am smarter than you. Screw off.

The United States has just elected a Democrat to office my a margin much, much greater than George W Bush was ever elected by. They now have solid majorities in both the House and Senate. So all of this obviously means… we are a center-right country. I know it makes total sense right.

First we have the ever delusional Jonah Goldberg who speculates that an Obama presidency will destroy the country. Most of his assumptions come from assuming that Obama will pander to the extremes of his party or surround himself with people who agree with him. I could see how this could be a problem, except that Obama isn’t an idiot.

Next John Boehner tells us that Obama won by portraying himself as a moderate. So either they lied with they said Obama was a socialist, or just think American’s are too stupid to figure out who Barack was then they voted for him.

Orrin Hatch says we will lose stature in the world with a President who doesn’t know what he is talking about. Yeah, because John McCain is a freaking genius.

Jeffery Shapiro thinks we have treated Bush horribly. Calling him a traitor and what not. Conservatives never ever ever do that stuff.

Media matters finds the entire thing to be absurd.

Welcome to the new, slightly lefter but still righter than most of the industrialized world, America.

I was hoping to wait until all the states and senate races had been called, but this will probably not happen soon. So what the heck happened Tuesday?

On the Presidential front Obama flipped Indiana but lost Missouri. Missouri was statistically tied, and I thought that a good turnout would be enough to get it to go Obama’s way, but while it was so close that it hasn’t been called yet, I don’t see Obama with a strong chance to flip it. In Indiana, Obama’s superior ground game was able to push a McCain advantage of about a point, back to Obama. Don’t underestimate a good ground game. A ground game like this in Ohio in 2004, or Florida in 2000, may have flipped those states to the Democrats.

Also, while it is still close, Obama may have won one of Nebraska’s electoral votes, the first time any state has split its electoral votes (only Maine and Nebraska can). This really shows the inroads Obama made into traditionally red constituencies.

In Congress the picture was bleaker for the Democrats. They won some high profile races, knocking of Shays, the only house Republican left in New England, and Fossella , the only Republican representing New York City. But overall they underperformed expectations, gaining only about 20 seats net, although there are still some races that are too close to call. In the Senate, Merkley and Beigh who were supposed to cruise to election both faced troubles. Merkley was declared the winner only recently, and Beigh actually lose to convicted felon Ted Stevens, albeit by a slim margin. We still do not know whether or not the Senate will actually let him serve. Also in Alaska, Don Young, who has his own ethics problems, overwhelmingly won reelection. Which proves that convicted felon’s have an easier time getting elected than Democrats in Alaska. While Wicker and McConnell both held their seats, Minnesota is going to a recount and Georgia is going to a run off. This means Democrats may end up with anywhere from 5 to 7 new senate seats.

On the proposition front locally, the horrible proposition 8 passed banning gay marriage again, although it will probably be challenged legally. But California did grant money for a high speed rail line and made some inroads against animal cruelty. It also granted unnecessary money for children’s hospitals. The notification of minor abortion proposition failed, as did several crime related ones, with the exception of proposition 9 that reforms victims rights and parole. The poorly worded environmental propositions also failed. Finally a terrible redistricting bill and a bond for veterans also passed.

Proposition 8’s passage deeply hurt me, though I am buoyed by the fact that gay marriage will be legal one day, though this is little solace to gays now. I am also distressed by the redistricting plan. The plan itself seems very poorly thought out, though the exact ramifications of it are yet to be seen. I think it represents a rash step that California have taken, that it can not easily take back.

All in all it was election of love and hate. We overcame America’s dark racial history by electing our first non-white president. But we also sent two high profile convicted felons back to office and banned gay marriage. It will be hard for me to celebrate as hard as a lot of other liberals are.

Obama has been projected to win Pennsylvania and Ohio by all major networks. Obama can lose all other tossups and still win the election. Good-night everyone.

Today is election day. Yay! But this election is not just about the presidency. There are a lot of really important senate races and house races to observe. In the senate, the Democrats stand poised to get 60 seats and a filibuster proof majority. Furthermore in the house the Democrats stand to make substantial gains further solidifying their majority.

The amount of senate and house seats the Democrats get, as well as Obama’s total electoral vote count will be based on the size of the Democratic wave. We have polls which give us a ball park estimate, but there are several things to consider that polls are not perfect at getting. First, the ground game and “Get Out The Vote” efforts may change numbers by a percent or so, which is a big deal in statistically tied races. Also, the electorate for this election may be substantially different than previous elections with increased youth, black, and first-time voter turnout. Lastly, the youth generation has become more and more dependent on cell phones which makes polling the youth harder.

I foresee three general possibilities, no wave, a moderate wave, and a tidal wave. My prediction is a moderate wave, but let’s see what these waves look like.

Base case, Obama wins 286

Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Maine (4), New Hampshire (3), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3), Delaware (3), Virginia (13), Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), Illinois (21), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), California (55), Washington (11), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4).

McCain wins 130

South Carolina (8), Texas (34), Alabama (9), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), Kansas (6), Nebraska (3)*, South Dakota (3), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Alaska (3).

Toss ups 122

North Carolina (15), Georgia (15), Florida (27), Ohio (20), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), Arizona (10), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Nebraska (2).

Well, Obama only needs 270 electoral votes to win. So yeah, I guess I am pretty sure this is over. But I’ll talk about this later. If Obama loses any of these states, it would be a massive upset. If John McCain loses any of those states, it would be a humongous land slide. But realistically these states are safe for their candidates, although some are safer than others.

No wave would mean Obama’s superior ground game is thoroughly negated by a small Bradley Effect, or a late surge in McCain support, or the youth or black turnout is lower than hoped. In this case Obama picks up Nevada and Ohio from the tossups while the rest go McCain giving a total of 311 Obama to 227 McCain.

In a moderate wave the Obama ground game shows some effect and we have the predicted higher than average turnout for young and minority voters. This leads us to Obama picking up Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri for a total of 364 to 174.

In a heavy wave we have youth and minority turnout destroy expectations. The Obama ground game is top notch, and Republican voters are heavily discouraged. In this case, all the toss ups left go Obama. In order of likelihood this is Indiana, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana, Arizona, and two of Nebraska’s electoral votes. All of these would give Obama a total of 408 electoral votes. Unfortunately I am using Real Clear Politics electoral map which does not allow splitting of electoral votes so the total votes in the picture say 406.

The next battlefield is the senate. Here the Democrats need 9 seats to get to 60 assuming Joe Lieberman stays in the caucus. We are using the same wave scenarios above. So the “No wave” in the presidential model would lead to the “No wave” scenario in the senate model.

In a minimum wave Democrats get 7 pickups in North Carolina, Alaska, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia for a total of 58 senate votes.

In a moderate wave, Democrats also pick up Minnesota’s senate seat giving them 59.

In a heavy wave Democrats could win one, two, or all of the races in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Georgia. A victory in any of these seats gives them 60. But they could theoretically win up to 62 seats.

In the House there are so many races I can’t discuss them in detail. But I would say that no wave nets the Democrats 26 seats, a moderate wave gets them 31 seats, and a heavy wave would get them 38 seats.

Now for those just interested in whether Obama wins, you can probably go to sleep early. If McCain loses any of the “toss ups” on the east coast he loses the election. The networks believe the tossups are Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. I am pretty sure that Obama wins Pennsylvania and Virginia. If the networks call any two of these races, it’s over for McCain.

But the size of the wave could reflect a mandate. A squeaker of an Obama win would lead to Republican charges that he only won because the economy is screwed up, or that his fund raising did it. A heavy wave would be a whole sale rejection of the Republican Party and a massive mandate or Obama and his policies. It might also send a message to Republicans to place nice with Obama, lest he remain popular into 2010 and they are seen as obstructionists costing them even more seats in congress.

Have a great election day!

I am going to admit I am young guy and I may not know everything there is to know, but I still don’t get the point of registering to vote in the first place, or having to do it in advance. Some states have same day registration and voting and the world has not ended. I have at least two friends who missed the voting registration dead line. What is the point of this? Heck, North Dakota doesn’t even do registrations. I have heard it prevents fraud, but I haven’t heard any claims of voting fraud. Not in North Dakota, or in states with same-day registration, or anywhere else. In fact, any reports that do surface tend to be honest mistakes. Our voter registration system disenfranchises people, while doing little to preserve democracy.

Just as I wrote this I found two articles on the subject. First, Richard Hansen at Slate. He advocates federal voter registration. This seems like a good idea to me. I think our electoral process should be federally standardized as much as possible. Now Democrats would be in favor of this, and Hansen believes any Republican truly concerned about voter fraud will be as well. I think the problem though is in the disconnect between the rank and file republican and the republican leadership. The republican leadership knows that voter “fraud” is not that big an issue. They know that it has no chance of ever significantly affecting the outcome of an election. They are just doing what they need to do to stay in power, disenfranchising poor and minority voters. The rank and file republican may truly be concerned about voter registration, but I think they are being fed with false information. So I am still not sold on the idea of registering voters, though if we do, it should be through the federal government.

Then Kevin Drum at Mother Jones takes everything one step further, implementing a national ID card. While this sounds good on paper, I am fairly sure it has little chance of succeeding over state protest. But his proposal still deserves a look. He wants the federal government to do all it can to be sure people have these IDs, including making them free, doing it automatically on 18th birthdays, and having trucks roll through rural areas. Still, I think the national ID card won’t appease some liberal complaints. Beyond the money cost, there is a time cost to getting a replacement. Even if the cost to replace is free, a working-class voter might still have to find the time to get off from his 9-5 job to go the 9-5 place to replace your national ID, I assume city hall or a dmv or something. It is easier for the upper-class with more flexible jobs to get time off to go get a replacement, but a lot harder for the working poor. So I don’t think his proposal overcomes all liberal objections.

Once again, I don’t have a perfect solution either. Unless we find people trying to manipulate the election, I see no harm in keeping rules to prove residency and citizenship relaxed. I also think we should expand the voting period nation wide. Then again, I guess it’s hard to say how realistic my idea’s are as well.

Fred Barnes, the editor of the right-wing paper The Weekly Standard, hates early voting as he explain in this video. But why does he hate it?

He says that we have a set election day and people who vote early will miss something. Well if we ever hold the election in a finite period of time, there will always certainly be something we don’t know that comes out later. But I don’t think that’s what he is referring to. I think he is upset about the October Surprise. In 2004, the October Surprise arguably won George W. Bush the election. While some may say it’s legitimate, I believe it is not. If the “surprise” should have a substantial effect on the election, then the campaigns should release it as early as possible. And given finite periods of time, election day will always miss something like this. But the October Surprise Fred Barnes is worried about losing are ones that only effect voters for a few days. They want to shock/scare voters into voting one way, when the other 95% of the year, they may have voted the other. This is dishonest politics and I consider it an advantage of early voting that it discourages this kind of campaigning.

Next he goes on to talk about the horrible conditions of early voting, the crowding and what not. This is not an indictment of early voting itself. In fact it shows that people want to vote early for one reason or another and that the will of the people is to make voting early even easier and more convenient. Maybe the conditions are bad then, but with early voting you know ahead of time that you are registered and if you show up early and something goes wrong, you have time to fix it, as opposed to showing up on election day and finding out that someone at the DMV mistyped your name and now you have been purged from voting roles by “voters rights” advocates in Ohio. Or maybe you show up and are greeted by even longer lines on election day in what could very well be bad weather. These factors also favor Republicans as stated in the articles referenced. It seams as though getting rid of early voting would help his party’s chances of winning. So we are probably not getting any “straight talk” from this guy.

In fact voting day itself is widely disenfranchising. It is in the middle of the work week for a limited time during the day making it harder for the working poor to get out and vote. Why not hold “election day” over a four day weekend? You can vote the Saturday, Sunday, and Monday before “election day” Tuesday. I don’t just mean early voting, I mean open up every precinct for a few hours on those other days. Make it as convenient to vote as possible. The worse thing that can happen is that our dismal voting rates go up.